Europe coming apart or coming together?

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|Europe coming apart
Around the mid-1990s, much of the concern was about finding out the countries that were to be able to succeed in the convergence criteria. Much were partly more with the political factors and economic reasons that related to the strictness on the criteria to interpret by EU. To be democratic and open for deliberation, the European Union is constructively akin to a Soviet bloc that a dissent is made acceptable until it wins. The Eurozone and refugee crisis will analyze the diverging issues. The commonness of the European Union foreign policies will be discussed in an integration manner. The European relations with Russia are addressed in a converging manner against the issues that pertain to Russia. The political system in the west and east of Europe are discussed as they are more closely related to one another. Changes of party systems within the countries and Brexit are to be addressed in a diverging state. Far from producing integration with the lack of common fiscal policies, the Eurozone has reinforced the pattern of divergence by undermining the process of capacity and legitimacy for the action of international institutions.
Furthermore, agreement and the rapid negotiations of 2012 on the fiscal compact brought up pressure that pushed the commission and the government to the drawing board. It later disguised an integrated national budget over-sighted by the commission and fiscal union to create a joint liable sovereign debt (Pinder & Simon, 68).

However, with the lack of a strong political direction, the European Union has been undergoing a process of structure divergence that futures growth, diverging employment, competition, productivity and fiscal trajectories.
a. The Eurozone crisis led to inflation rates and interest rates on government debts when countries joined. With inflation, Germany was considered the safest location to invest in that created a low-risk premium allowing it to enjoy corresponding low-interest rates.
b. Greece and Portugal and Spain and Ireland were two distinct groups with different histories that involve the current account balances. Greece and Portugal squandered their borrowed funds. German played the leading role while other countries were acting like creditors.
c. The Northern European countries had low domestic demands while neighbors from the southern part had higher domestic demand. Greece and Portugal increased their ULC as they used their borrowed funds disproportionately in increasing wages.
d. Ireland and Spain experienced tremendous disarray leaders of victory and defeated European countries that are facing inescapable realization in the wake of the Second World War. If nations of Europe will not find a way of sharing resources and cooperating, they are to end in the civil war (world affairs journal.org, 1).
e. Housing bubble created additional tax revenue that creates governments to be in less fiscal positions. Spain had an underlying labor market problem with the economy.
Additionally, the refugee crisis is not a German problem but an issue for the entirety of Europe. A proposal that could have made a change in a short period is the Merkel plan by the European stability initiative that was discussed by the political leaders from the Berlin to Hague. The refugee crisis produced negative reactions with the migratory pressure that was related to the labor market and cumulative effects with consideration of the low levels job creation. Salaries fell as there was much demand for jobs as compared to the job supply the high refugee influx has already kept many parts of Europe in suspense as the situation is critical. Moreover, citizens that were unemployed felt the pressure of waiting longer for the jobs available due to the refugee’s crisis. Some distortion and imbalances aroused due to lack of a visa for the refugees which permits movement. Angela Merkel always wished for the flow of refugees to be manageable if the European countries had worked together (Pinder & McDougall, 65). After crossing walls, seas and fences, there was the limitation of aid to asylum facilitated by countries like Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark. For instance, the Danish government made a publication of the advertisement that talked about a reduction by half of the benefits that were socially given to refugees. Moreover, the number of attacks on refugees tended to increase as politicians were accused of welcoming them as support for refugees greatly that diminished from citizens.
The European Union foreign and security policies are the ambitious cooperation with goals for a favorable united Europe. Many of the activities had taken place outside the procedures and institutions of the European community when other member states had the transformation of approaches for the economic governance in vast policy areas for the response of the EU pressures. However, the European political cooperation is vague in scope and with limitations regarding institutional design. Currently, there lacks a foreign policy issue that is not examined by the European Union with much cooperation that has relations with security and defense within the EU. Britain had been absorbed with EU-related policies without the change of institutional arrangements and policies (Schmidt, 17). An EU explanation on foreign policy can benefit from general explanations for institutional development as compared with other theories, for instance, functionalism that was specifically developed to make an explanation to the European economic integration. By this, it directly means to take into account the reciprocal that links between the propensity of the state and institutional development for cooperation in achieving joint gains. The relationship is observed to be circular and dynamic for cooperation that encourages actors to build the institutions. The cooperation or policy coordination needs deliberate, active efforts for goal achievement. The view provides a rationale for the expansion and persistence of the European foreign policy for integration and foreign policy cooperation generally. It is explained by two logics: the interdependence logic and the regional integration. Regional integration logic is involved in situations that outside factors that make the demands on the EU results of the common policies regarding the single European market. Interdependence logic has involvement in international pressures that encourage collectiveness in response by the European Union.
Policy convergence of the European Union is seen that the mightier the coordination of the policy for cooperating states, the more powerful the results of the impact. The unitary actor is required for the optimum co-ordination, a norm that is logical for the integrating theory with consideration of interests and national sovereignties by multilateral congruence or convergence within the European Union. To the theoretical and normative dimensions must add the role of contingency. The relations with Russia are weak for two reasons: a preference for bilateralism instead of multilateralism and the convergence has been hindered with the poor coordination techniques by the key member states. The European Union and Russia relations are slightly influenced by the Russian exports, stability and security for the general public. Contrary, the Russian policy towards the European Union is being shaped by less limited material benefits for the regional trade due to the energy being a global market. Additionally, it has a concern on bolstering the broader geographical strategic role of the European Union in Europe and worldwide. Countries that are alongside Russia and the European Union are expected to make a choice between Russia promoted models of economic and political development. The legal uncertainty, unpredictable tax, and the anti-capitalist rhetoric encourage the private investments (Koruai, 38). The realist theories involve perceptions on specific external threats that motivate cooperation the European Union offers to the region does not include the membership but the Eastern partnership program that covers association; free trade is and visa-free perspective. Russia has pursuance of its policy that strengthens links and influences with western neighborhood countries with own policies that are western like. Advancement of trade, stability and mutual beneficial boundary for energy relations have identification of respondents is areas of the European Union and Russian interest. The European Union is pursuing its interest with consideration of the expenses of the EU or its related partners as the EU should restrain its own behavior.
By the political system converging, the progress recorded by the democracies is observed to be more successful by surrounding their embarking on the regime in the disorder of the communist system collapse. The 1990 transition phase focused on transformation and democratization. For political science and sociology, the revolution was among the third wave of democracy that involved southern Europe and the Latin America. Several political scientists have a belief that party systems are rooted in value and social based conflicts. Most of them are noted to be the ones present during the end of the nineteenth century and start of the 20th century (James & Palgrave, 155). The power of the national governments to pull domestic actors together alongside the pursuit of integrating whatever was limited by structural and situational factors. Conditionality and harmonization are viewed to be the enhancing forces that drive economic and political transformation. The empirical concerns had involvement with questions on various types of migration across Europe, capitalism, ethical identities and political consolidation. The period of rapid change for the CEE emerged around 2007 has many states had achieved membership for the EU.
The democratic political systems are supposed to be animated and responsible to the social values of its citizens. The significant shift of social values is expected to have some core political ramifications. The major implications of the analysis are that the changes in political systems are significant in the in the broad changes in social values that are including the decline of conservatism and liberalization within the birth cohorts. The changes to party systems within countries are characterized by the cultural and economic values. The establishing of democratic regimes in Western and Eastern Europe over the last one decade has promoted serious debates about the functioning party democracy across the comprised countries. Political instability occurs in several ways as parties do not join and leave the electoral competition at will. The crises of the inter-war period saw the failure of democratic parties and the emergency of ideological parties on the extreme west and east of Europe. Parties were using advanced technological communication strategies that tried to make up the lack of the organizational density. When considering social mobility, the statistics is contradicting the stereotypes of the societies that split between the oligarchs and beggars (Bale, 3). The organizational competition is reflected by competing parties and is to be considered a contagion from the right. Divergence resulted in between countries with the availability of labor productivity and human capital where labor markets that were adversely affected by linguistic and cultural issues.
The forecast of the Brexit’s potential impact on the European divergence into broader scenarios is one that observes the loss of the U.K as the deathblow. The EU disintegration and meltdown is that, joining the EU meant a permanent stay in the EU. The disturbing force would influence a separatist force from the Scotland to Spain with anti-trade populists across the continent and reinvigorates the extensible questions at the common euro currency. The turnout in the heartlands of Brexit is considered to be higher than average an indicator that citizens who had been for long excluded from consensus in the mainstream used the referendum to raise their issues about the EU membership with perceived threats to values, national identity and ways of life (Carl, 5). The pressure on consensus is bubbling with democratic policy to eschew the transition arrangements for the free movement of labor for the assessing the east European states that every other EU state has adopted. Within the non-membership in Britain, the Eurozone had lasted a lender of the last resort. The British government had anticipated leaving the EU by invoking of Article 50 the Treaty of Lisbon. If successful, it could have been given two years for the negotiation of the formal agreement to determine if the scope of the transition period is unclear. The City of London crucial relationship had implications that strived to secure the passport rights that will be beneficial in providing financial services support from Britain for the EU member states. With the surplus financial services that Britain currently enjoys, the significance of the British competitiveness has not gone well with the European capitals. Fragmentation of the European Union is predominant. The relationships between fragmentation and integration are in a dilemma both practically and ideologically. The Europeans have followed a mismatch between the people and the borders. The possibility of changing borders was first ruled out by peaceful means. The trend is largely significant since it goes against the idea of European integration that observes the shared sovereignty for achieving shared prosperity.
Conclusion
The geography and history that is departing from Europe may regain control for fragmentation soon. The EU citizens require the government to be run by them on religious, cultural and linguistic, generosity, and democracy. The European Union is delivering an opposite of democracy where bureaucrats that are not elected by anyone on one size fit on policies in independent policies. The global trends are towards the decentralized local homogeneity and against the central government. Despite the dire warning of the economic havocs, Brexit will create an economic uncertainty and monetarily chaos. The EU elites are assuming economic self-interest that is motivating individuals.

Works Cited
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Carl, Noah. “The Ultimate Causes Of Brexit: History, Culture, And Geography”. British Politics and Policy at LSE,. 2016/ 1-7
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