Evaluate/analyze the 2016 Presidential campaign. focus on the nomination process. public opinion polling or the electoral college.

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9th November 2016
Analysis of the American 2016 Presidential Campaign
Introduction
The United States of America is a democratic nation with its election process occurring after every four years, usually on the first Tuesday of November of the election year. The election process usually begins with the primary elections which later move to the nomination convention (Cohen et al. 708; Weinschenk, Aaron and Costas 512). The nomination meeting is to identify the potential candidate and to unite the rest of the aspiring nominees and focus on one candidate chosen by the people in a democratic system (Weinschenk, Aaron and Costas 516). The democratic governance has been successfully implemented in the U.S government due to advance standards of the law. Therefore, this supports the scholarly ideology of Franklin Roosevelt that democracy requires wise choice that coincides with the majority of the people (. in Panagopoulos, Costas and Kyle 69). Therefore, safeguarding democracy, proper education will facilitate the wise decision of the majority considering the actual policies of the leaders. After the nomination process is done, the next phase further goes on and chooses the preferable vice president as the running mate. The preferred candidates thereafter, conduct campaign across the country to present their views and manifesto through series of public conventions (Weinschenk, Aaron and Costas 513). The presidential nomination primarily is to subject the national interest in one political platform.

Thus, the nominees have the party ticket to set policies that will win the citizens of the United States of America.
The U.S. presidential election process further has a successive cycle of events. The first phase is the candidate announcement and intentions for the presidency. This process usually begins a year before the Election Day. The second phase is the primary and caucus debates whereby the public opinion comes as the interest to the people. Nominees are to publicly declare their intention in government and their plans to the people. This event usually takes place during the summer season of the year whereby the parties present themselves on a political argument on plans for the country. The third phase is the state parties’ primary and caucuses’ election taking place between January and June. The fourth event is the participation of presidential debates occurring in the month of September and October (Cohen et al. 706-707). The general election after that takes place on the second Tuesday of November during the year of election stipulated by the U.S Constitution. In December, the Electors cast their votes in the Electoral Colleges which is later counted by the Congress in the following year. The Congress, in this case, is the legislative representatives who make the law from the Senate and the House of Representatives. Finally, on 20th of January, the official inauguration of the presidency takes the final step of the election and poll decision.
The 2016 campaigns and election process under the stipulated constitutional requirement take the same process of the previous election since no amendment introduced to the 114th congress reforms on the election process. The Democrat, Republican, and the independent candidates, therefore, allowed the nomination process. The 2016 nomination tickets were as follows; Hillary Clinton taking the Democrats, Donald Trump on the Republican lead and Garry Johnson Libertarian Party, Jill Stein Green Party, Darrel Castle Constitution Party (Thrush et al. “2016 Elections”). The poll opinion from the official indicates that Democrats and the Republicans dominated the majority of the people (Cohen et al. 708). The Republicans incorporated the rules changes amended in 2012 allowing long primary battle of candidates before nomination. The party further adopted two changes that became vital in allocating their delegates. This event of selecting delegates from different states except for Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina and New Hampshire states took place proportionally in March during the year of the election (Thrush et al. “2016 Elections”). These exceptional states hold their delegate event during April to allow a proportion of the primary votes totals in some fashion. The basis of this rule is to reduce front loading and to prolong the comparison of the first cycle of nomination and focus on the speculations of the Republican convention (. in Cohen et al. 705). Moreover, the party also made other reviews on the party rules for 2016 allowing delegates’ allocation in the first two weeks of March contrary to that of 2012 law of the entire month.
The Democrats have their system of delegates’ selection rule for 2016 whereby the state democrat party present commissioners’ selection plans to the Democrat National Committee. The panel of board decides and determines the delegates in compliance with the national party rules after that the approved members receive notice before presidential elections. These rules and bylaws act on the proposed commissioners’ selection plan in the month of September during the year of the election. Nonetheless, the Democrats have identified two categories of delegates. The first group of representatives is the pledged candidates who express a presidential candidate. Pledged district delegates are, therefore, elected at the district levels and the federal levels. The second group is the unpledged candidates taking up no preference on party leaders elected officials in within the state. The third type of members is the “Add-on” delegates who allow the representation by party leaders and elected representatives in within the state. Consequently, the committee determines the delegates by multiplying the total number of delegates for a state by 15% to allocate the appropriate number of members required (Thrush et al. “2016 Elections”). The allocation factor is a determining instrument in ensuring the national equity representation of delegates. Moreover, the state has a share of the unpledged delegates involving four members of the National Committee and one in the Senate majority leadership.
On the other majority party, Republicans allocate ten delegates at all states and three delegates per Congress district. Besides, the party also assigned bonus members as delegates to the state and take the democratic electoral vote. The nominees in the previous elections are assigned single large delegates to the state of more than half of governors in the House of Representatives. The bonus delegates are from the District of Columbia if it cast its majority electoral vote for the Republican nominees. Other large delegates come from the American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Island and the Virgin Islands. The 2016 delegates number is 4763, Democratic National Convention of 319 members and 2316 members in the alternates Republican National Conventions (Panagopoulos, Costas and Kyle 74).
The public opinion poll of 2016 indicated that two candidates from the Democrat and Republican having almost the same number of supporters with insignificant projections for the most preferred candidate. The presidential debates and policies declaration has been a huge difference with the Republican focusing on the undelivered turnaround policies by President Barrack Obama and how to restore security and prosperity of the country. On the other side, the Democrats’ political platform is to project inclusive representation than before. The electoral college of the United States of America is a body that chooses electors who pledge to cast their votes for preferred candidates. The numbers of electors thus, choose their preferred candidate for the presidency. The opinion poll is, therefore, conducted and analyzed in through the telecommunication section. The technological advancement in 2016 allowed easy access to electronic clipboards and the internet poll opinions. Consequently, an efficient and contrasting survey using complex matrices has been easily portrayed in this technological system (Panagopoulos, Costas and Kyle 71). The social media statistics has made the election prediction more efficient whereby the voting intention is easily identified from the people. Another form of poll prediction is the brush fire whereby campaign competitiveness is used to determine the preference of the citizens.
The U.S presidential election 2016 has had a series of amendments on how to conduct the nomination process. Moreover, the parties have focused on the interest of the people and ensuring equal representation of delegates. Also, the campaign period has been competitive in determining the people’s preferred candidates. From the first debate, the prediction indicated the Democrat leader Hillary Clinton on the lead over Donald Trump of the Republican Party (Thrush et al. “2016 Elections”). The second debate was unpredictable in determining the possible winner in the general election day. The competitive nature of the process supports that the two candidates have equally preferred to the citizens of U.S (Weinschenk, Aaron and Costas 512).
In conclusion, the political dynamisms of the United States of America indicate that the democratic process requires advance regulation that accommodates the changes in any election. Therefore, to win the democracy of the state requires the independence of the people to ensure that there is equal representation. Moreover, the United States of America has achieved a series of election equity through the amended of party rules to ensure that all persons are satisfied in the leadership (Cohen et al. 705; Thrush et al. “2016 Elections”). Consequently, to win the U.S election requires a majority of the casted electoral votes in the House of Representatives who in turn choose the President of the State.
Work Cited
Cohen, Marty et al. “Party Versus Faction In The Reformed Presidential Nominating System”. PS: Political Science & Politics, vol 49, no. 04, 2016, pp. 701-708. Cambridge University Press (CUP), doi:10.1017/s1049096516001682.
Panagopoulos, Costas and Kyle Endres. “The Enduring Relevance Of National Presidential Nominating Conventions”. The Forum, vol 13, no. 4, 2015, pp. 66-74 Walter De Gruyter Gmbh, doi:10.1515/for-2015-0039.
Thrush, Glenn et al. “2016 Elections”. POLITICO, 2016, http://www.politico.com/news/2016-elections.
Weinschenk, Aaron and Costas Panagopoulos. “Convention Effects: Examining The Impact Of National Presidential Nominating Conventions On Information, Preferences, And Behavioral Intentions”. Journal Of Elections, Public Opinion And Parties, vol 26, no. 4, 2016, pp. 511-531. Informa UK Limited, doi:10.1080/17457289.2016.1223678.