predictive policing and how it works

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Predictive Policing
Scientists have believed that the future crime patterns are influenced by historical trends. With the advancement of technology and machine learning, this theory is being tested. There is an emergence of forecasting tools that are bound to change law enforcement and the nature of privacy. One popular forecasting platform is known as Predictive Policing. This platform is on the belief that criminal activity is not only contagious but also hyper-concentrated. A good example is the Chicago’s west side. In this place, a network that is less than 4% of the population, is responsible for over 40% of firearm-related murders. It is also believed that there are some people that are predisposed to repeat victimization than others (Muggah 1).
Predictive policing uses a machine learning platform for calculations and making predictions. Events that happened in the past are fed to the machine algorithm as data sets. The data used is ideally two to five years back. The algorithm is updated on a daily basis as events occur. The information used is derived from the “Agency’s Records Management System (RMS)” (Predpol 1). Only three data points are used by the predictive policing system to create predictions. These are the type of crime, the location of crime and date/time. The system does not use any ethnic, socio-economic or demographic data in order to eliminate any potential civil rights and privacy violations. The predictions made are portrayed as red boxes on Google maps.

The boxes are representations of areas with a high crime risk. Such a prediction is then used by patrol officers strategically spend more time on the high-risk areas (Pearsall 17).
The effectiveness of the predictive policing method is yet to be determined. There are a number of police departments that are already using the system both in the U.S. and Europe. Some of these departments have reported success. Burglary rate was reported to have dropped when the system was trialed in the state of California. Though such systems may exhibit some success in offering insights on the places and time criminal activities are highly probable, they are still not able to offer precise information on the type of crime or the individuals that might commit the crime (Muggah 1).
Works Cited
Muggah, Robert. “Does Predictive Policing Work?” The Cipher Brief, 6 Nov. 2017, HYPERLINK “http://www.thecipherbrief.com/does-predictive-policing-work” www.thecipherbrief.com/does-predictive-policing-work.
Pearsall, Beth. “Predictive policing: The future of law enforcement.” National Institute of Justice Journal 266.1 (2010): 16-19.
Predpol. “How PredPol Works | Predictive Policing.” PredPol, 1 Jan. 2013, HYPERLINK “http://www.predpol.com/how-predictive-policing-works/” www.predpol.com/how-predictive-policing-works/.